This year's GDP projections

October 23
This year GDP projections.
Hi,

Will India be able to repeat last year's GDP figures ? or can we just sustain the growth momentum?

Last year India had achieved 9%real GDP growth.

Interesting to know what kind of impact would the financial crises have on GDP of India?

With all that market conditions this yeare we will achieve GDP close to 7.5 % .Here's why .

Agriculture. The monsoons have been kind and the kharif crop is good .If the rabi harvests are as good ,we are looking at 7 % plus agriculture growth.with agriculture acounting for 18 % of GDP ,its contribution be 1.3% points of GDP growth.

Industrial growth is worrying ,especially the latest figures of the index of industrial production. Even so if we just take a guess that we'll close the year with at least 4.5 % growth - more likely 5 % if you ask me.Given industry 's 27 % share in GDP,that is 1.2 to1.4 percentage points of GDP growth.

Now for services which contributes 55 % of India' GDP . I am betting that it will still achieve 9% growth.This is partly due to pay commission kicker; but mostly because of the sector is domestic enough to be resonably resilient.Thus, implies a contribution of 5 % points to GDP growth. If we add these three sectors ,It is looking something like 7.5 % this year.

vibhor